Introduction
Sabino Palmieri
Università di Roma "La Sapienza"
The International School on Disarmament and Researchon Conflicts -ISODARCO- has organised, since 1966, residential courseson problems related to international conflicts. After the Kyoto conferenceit was decided that the problems related to climate changes due to anthropogeniccauses, and their impact on natural resources, might be a relevant sourceof international conflicts in the not too distant future. For this reasonIsodarco decided to organise a summer course on "Global Climate Changeand Impacts on Natural Resources". This decision was triggered by the followingconsiderations:
a) There is new and stronger evidence that mostof the world warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable tohuman activities.
b) Any large warming would be detrimental to all parts of the world in economic, agricultural productivity and water resources terms. Ecosystems are also vulnerable to the projected warming and human systems are quite sensitive to it. Vulnerability and impacts on food and fresh water provision, as well as on health, are becoming critical in manyareas.
c) Environmental changes may lead to serious socio-economicconsequences and in some cases to conflicts. In the framework of environmental, economic and social sciences, proper options shall be found to guaranteeeconomic growth and sustainable development and at the same time mitigation of climate change, while costs can be minimized by timing these actions appropriately.
The presentations and discussion within the 2001 Candriai Summer School can be broadly divided in the following categories:
Bonino G. : Climate Changes on 10-105 years Time Scales
Casale R.G. : Siani A.M. : Stratospheric Ozone, UV and Climate Change
Fiocco G. : The Role of Aerosols in Climate Change
Palmieri S. : Climate Fluctuations in the Mediterranean
Severinghaus J.: The Record of Past Abrupt Climate Change
Somerville R. : Problems and prospects for improving climate models
Valentini R. : Carbon Fluxes and Carbon Budget in the Atmosphere
Impacts:
Camuffo D. : Climate Change and Coastal Effects: Venice as a case study
Cegnar T. : Heat Waves and Human Health
Gommes R. : Climate Change Impacts on Agricultureand Food Supply
Lo’ay Froukh : Climate Change: Impacts on the Groundwater Resources of the West Bank
Sciortino M. : Desertification and Soil Conservation, the Climate Change Challenge
Severini M. : The Impacts of UV on Biosphere
Suarez P. : Climate Change: Regional Developmentand Equity: A look at the Idrovia Navigation Project
Social stresses, vulnerability, mitigation, international agreements and economic, public education:
Edesess M. : Global Climate change: International Agreements and Economic
Hassol S. J. : Science, Public Education andPolicy
Kelly H. : Climate Change: Economic Growth and Sustainable Development through Advanced Technologies
Stonich J. S. : Climate Change, Human Dimension and Policy as seen by an Anthropologist
Turton A. : The Construction of Knowledge and Implications for the Climate Change Debate: a Perspective from the Developing South
It would be very hard to give in a few lines a summary of the School achievements. Several questions and some answers may be found consulting the specific papers. Candriai, a nice mountain site in an Alpine wood, together with the splendid school hospitality, contributed to the success of the initiative: after having listened to a bright lecture on carbon fluxes everybody realised to be in a…. silent natural factory where CO2 was continuously converted into…. sugar.
Although human activities certainly contributeto the carbon increase in the atmosphere, burning of fossil fuels and deforestationbeing primary causes, the carbon cycle within the climate system is notentirely understood and the international network of observing stationswas described to give an answer to the so far open questions.
In the session dealing with scientific basis,and particularly with climate simulation models, a number of uncertaintieshave been mentioned, such as the role of clouds and aerosols which affectresults with a shade of doubt: clouds are vital in modulating the watervapour response to the greenhouse effect, while aerosols cause a directclimate forcing by reflecting sun light and indirectly by modifying cloudproperties: both these elements are neither modelled in a reliable fashion,nor exhaustively monitored on a global basis. The point was raised aboutthe role of non CO2 greenhouse gases in stimulating the globalwarming and to the feasibility of a strategy to mitigate global warmingby reducing non CO2 gases (tropospheric ozone, methane) andblack carbon aerosols. Some hope on the possibility of seasonal climateforecasting in a very delicate area like the Mediterranean, in which the"climate stress" is expected particularly serious, was offered by the interpretationof the regional climate history in the past 50 years and by the tele-connectionsbetween climate parameters and various atmospheric circulation indexes.
Impacts of global warming in various fields wereconsidered and analysed by some lecturers, impressive were coastal effectsin reference to the problem of Venice, impacts on the biosphere and humanhealth, the latter with reference to heat waves. Desertification, now affectingsouthern Europe as well, has been exhaustively and dramatically describedalso by means of a film titled "Deserts in Europe".
The last session was concentrated on social stresses,vulnerability, mitigation, international agreements and economic, publiceducation: it was particularly effective in analysing and relating various aspects of global warming, with reference to the " hated and blessed" Kyoto protocol, whose positive and negative aspects were deeply discussed. Thepublic education on the global warming topic and the delicate role of mediawas also singled out.
The integration among experts of various sciencebranches involved in the problem and the many graduate students from variousparts of the world attending the course, was confirmed by a number of deep,interesting, constructive questions and discussions. As we have seen, uncertainties in understanding climate processes are present. Luckily, doubt is the fuelof the science engine and research shall continue, particularly in thearea of climate modelling and data collection to reach a level to bettercontribute to policy decisions.